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Trinity Strategic Wealth™ Current Newsletter
October 2025
Even with the government shutdown casting a shadow over Washington D.C., equity markets have continued their upward march, fueled by a trifecta of positive surprises: cooler-than-expected inflation, another rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and easing trade tensions.
· Year-over-year headline inflation ticked up slightly in September while core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, ticked downward. Inflation remains above the target rate but on net this was a better result than the market expected.
· In light of better-than-expected inflation numbers, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by another quarter point in October, bringing the target federal funds rate to3.75-4.00%. The cut is intended to provide relief to a weakening labor market.
· US-China trade tensions briefly rattled the market ahead of President Donald Trump’s trip to Asia, but rebounded quickly, and the meeting between Trump and President Xi Jinping reduced the temperature of the trade dispute.
Mega-cap tech stocks, flying high on investors’ enthusiasm for AI and AI-related capital expenditures, continue to dominate.
“With valuations now sitting in the top1% of the past two decades and much of the good news already priced in, were main cautious,” said Raymond James Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam. “Any disappointment could trigger a modest pullback, though we would view it as a healthy correction within a still-strong bull market, underpinned by solid fundamentals.”
The bottom line
October continued many of the trends that have become familiar to investors in 2025: AI euphoria, trade tensions ratcheted and released, and the Fed trying to thread the needle between job growth and inflation. Through all these headlines and mixed signals, markets remain strong. Equity growth is broad, if not particularly balanced, and corporate earnings are a bright spot.
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